Mexican President Lopez signed a decree imposing temporary import duties of 5% to 50 percent on 544 goods `

Mexican President Lopez signed a decree on Tuesday, imposing temporary import tariffs of 5 to 50 percent on 544 items, including steel, aluminum, textiles, clothing, footwear, wood, plastics and their products, chemical products, paper and cardboard, ceramics, glass and its finished products, electrical equipment, transportation equipment, Musical Instruments and furniture. The decree became effective on April 23, and lasts for two years.

` China's aluminum exports to Mexico `

According to ST data, China's aluminum exports to Mexico totaled about 509,000 tons last year, accounting for 9.4 percent of the total domestic aluminum exports. In the first quarter of 2024, the total amount of domestic aluminum exports to Mexico was about 159,000 tons, accounting for 1.2% of the total domestic aluminum exports. The domestic aluminum products exported to Mexico are mainly aluminum strip products, with the average monthly average export volume of 35,000-40,000 tons, accounting for about 15% of the total domestic aluminum strip exports.

` Upstream bauxite supply is tight and the price rises `

Shanxi has ordered Luliang Jinming Mining and Yangjiashan Aluminum Mine of Chinalco to stop production for rectification in several mine accidents, and the mining of Sanmenxia bauxite mine is limited due to land reclamation requirements, resulting in tight supply of Jinyu bauxite mine and rising prices. This has prompted Chinese companies to actively seek to of bauxite mines, making spot supply of bauxite in Australia and Guinea tight and prices may be stable.

` Alumina capacity operating rate increased production increased `

The supplement of imported bauxite and high production profits promote domestic alumina enterprises to resume production, which makes China's alumina production capacity operating rate increase compared with last week, which may make China's alumina production in April increase from the previous month, but it is difficult to change the tight balance between supply and demand.

` Downstream demand gradually restored capacity operating rate increased `

Domestic economic stimulus policies and the arrival of the traditional consumption season gradually restored downstream demand, promoting the capacity utilization rate of leading enterprises in China's downstream aluminum industry increased compared with last week. Among them, aluminum profile, photovoltaic profile, automobile profile, aluminum profile, aluminum cable, aluminum strip, aluminum foil, primary aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy, recycled aluminum alloy and other production capacity and operating rates have increased to different degrees compared with last week.

` Trading strategy advice `

Production profit higher to stimulate domestic alumina enterprises after production enthusiasm, but because jin yu bauxite is still difficult to production imports and domestic bauxite prices higher form production costs, superposition of Yunnan remaining 650000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity still after production expectations, or make alumina prices easy to rise difficult to fall, suggest investors every back more single layout is given priority to, near 3000-3200 support and near 3406-3500 pressure.

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The fed rate cut point expected to delay and the Treasury continued a lot of bonds, Yunnan water good support recent 520000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and still need to pay attention to the remaining 650000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the Shanghai aluminum prices adjusted, suggest investors yesterday empty single cautious hold, focus on 19500-19800 / 2000 support and pressure near 20600-21000.

------AKLU，阿克鲁。